Frequent Positive News Pushes Iron Ore Prices to Rise Beyond Expectations [SMM Commentary]

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Today, Dalian iron ore futures opened lower but closed higher, fluctuating upward throughout the day. The most-traded I2505 contract finally settled at 817.5 yuan/mt, up 1.43% for the day. Traders were highly active in offering cargoes, while steel mills were cautious in procurement, with a heightened wait-and-see sentiment. Today's market transactions were moderate. In Shandong, mainstream transaction prices for PB fines ranged from 802-805 yuan/mt, up 10-15 yuan/mt from yesterday; in Tangshan, transaction prices for PB fines were around 810-820 yuan/mt, up 5-10 yuan/mt from yesterday. The major steel demand and inventory data released today aligned with the seasonal pattern, and overall market sentiment was optimistic. However, iron ore prices surged significantly due to disruptions from overseas shipment news, coupled with downstream demand yet to be fully unleashed, squeezing steel mill profit margins, which may exert some pressure on ore prices. Meanwhile, spot prices struggled to catch up, and the upside room for ore prices is expected to be limited in the short term.